Bolsonaro is not Getúlio, but he comes down from umbuzeiro – 04/28/2023

Jair Bolsonaro gropes his return to the political stage. After administering massive doses of verbal morphine to federal police officers who heard his testimony on Wednesday, Bolsonaro should do an “agroshow” during the May 1 holiday. He will visit an agricultural fair in the capital of the country of trains, Ribeirão Preto, in the rich countryside of São Paulo.

And? It has everything to be first relevant public appearance of Bolsonaro since he fled to the United States and returned. O public is frankly favorable to him: the organizers preferred to receive the former president than representatives of the new government, such as the Minister of Agriculture, Carlos Fávaro, and the vice-president, Geraldo Alckmin.

In addition to the privileged stage, the timing is clocked:

  • Bolsonaro seek positive news to oppose the titles that he made coup propaganda for being under the influence of drugs.
  • On the holiday, the competition from other headlines is less.
  • Enjoy a moment when the government has lost control of what comes out in the media and has to explain about serial bad news.
  • It should please the agropublic by speaking out against the recent wave of occupations promoted by landless rural workers.

I’ve seen it before. Deposed in 1945, Getúlio Vargas went into exile on a ranch in the interior of Rio Grande do Sul. From the depths of São Borja, he measured politics, probed the news. When he felt the time was right, he announced his return in a historic interview with Samuel Wainer. Getúlio controlled the weather, took advantage of the turn in the political climate, returned to power. And he taught:

“When the circumstance is not guaranteed, the best thing to do is to wait, resist, turn time into an ally. Never get off the umbu tree before the time”

To the lessons from umbuzeiro have been part of the Brazilian culture since then:

  • Timing is vital in politics;
  • The politician is him and his circumstance;
  • You have to have patience to do nothing;
  • AND act when the occasion presents itself.

Lula is proof. Patient, she got out of jail for re-election.

In the case of Getúlio, the umbuzeiro actually existed – according to his best biographer, Lira Neto.

Fearing his father’s whip after damaging a painting with the image of Manuel Vargas’s political idol, the boy Getúlio took refuge in the branches of an umbu tree on the family farm. He resisted hiding for a day and a night. He only came down when anger turned to concern, and the circumstance turned a potential spanking into tearful hugs.

Contrary to the revolutionary refrain, in politics who knows, it doesn’t always make the time, wait for it to happen.

reality check. Bolsonaro is not Getúlio and has a potential judicial conviction against him that would make him ineligible until 2026 and beyond. Bolsonaro may not be an option for power, but he is an electoral supporter.

#Bolsonaro #Getúlio #umbuzeiro

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