Framework – Government wins, and apocalypse does not come. Pterodactyls, PSOL and Kant – 05/24/2023

Yeah… The basic text of the fiscal framework was approved in the Chamber by 373 votes to 108, well above the 257, the absolute majority, needed for a Complementary Law. Four highlights were left for this fourth, but nothing that substantially changes the proposal. No big trouble is expected in the Senate. And, you see!, the Apocalypse has not come, which does not mean that it cannot continue to be announced. Agree: if the end times did not seduce mentalities, there would not even be religions. And, obviously, these only exist because the said-whose never comes, right? Thus, the end of the world is only preached because, in fact, one does not believe in the end of the world. But the theme makes the prophets famous.

The text put together by Cláudio Cajado (PP-BA), the rapporteur, is not so different from the one proposed by the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, which had Lula’s assent. “Ah, but the PT criticized the proposal throughout the process”… In the past, one would say: “How much ink was wasted on this pointlessly!” Today, not even that. The party cast 66 of its 68 votes for approval. Two did not vote — and it must not have been out of rebellion. PSOL, which is part of the base, delivered 12 of its 13 to “no” — Luíza Erundina (SP) was absent. The PL of Jair Bolsonarowith 99 parliamentarians, yielded 30 to the elastic score in favor of the government.

Does this mean that Lula can count on that generous number, who would approve constitutional amendments with a wide margin? After all, for that, 308 votes are needed. Not necessarily. But it’s not the other way around either.

The framework did not face great resistance in Congress also because opposition to the Lula government it’s disorganized, agree. An important part orbits around Jair Bolsonaro, who cannot lead anything. He spends most of his time dealing with police matters.

In any case, the text suffered severe opposition from a considerable part of what used to be called the “mainstream press” — and the mythomaniac extreme right took it upon themselves to defame it on the networks. And here I return to the Apocalypse: the so-called market “analysts” came to foresee an explosive trajectory for the debt, which motivated furious editorials.

On Tuesday, in a seminar in Folha, the unsuspecting heterodoxy Roberto Campos Neto, president of the Central Bank, said: “We, looking at the market’s reaction, understand that the market sees that the framework was a great effort. I think Minister Haddad worked very hard (…). He completely eliminated this risk of the debt simply getting out of control and has a concern with the dynamics between expenditures and revenues”.

Ready. The master has spoken! Now it’s time to sell minor apocalypses… After all, you have to feed the “cult” that ensures the government is going down the drain.

A note: I am referring above to what is called “heterodoxy” – quite often it designates concern for the poor. Sticking only to the meaning of the word, it is evident that I find it quite “heterodox” that the country has real interest rates of almost 8%, the highest in the world, although there is not a single macroeconomic foundation that justifies such nonsense. Forward.

I remember that this framework began to be designed there at the Transition PEC, which also mobilized all the gods — or devils — of furious financism. And yet that text was approved, the deficit did not explode, Brazil is not finished and is not about to. And whether there will be a new model of fiscal balance in the first semester. The much cursed Transition PEC served, for example, to recreate Minha Casa Minha Vida, Mais Médicos and expand the benefits of Bolsa Família. Poor…

“But did you ask, Reinaldo, if, after all, this is the base of the government?” My answer is this: discounting the 12 votes from PSOL and one from the Network, all against the PL of the framework, it can be said that, with certainty, the unconditional and, if necessary, truculent opposition, brings together at least 95 parliamentarians. They are in the Chamber to face “Lulo-Petismo” as they say, no matter what they do. If they suspect that the proposal is good, even worse. If the president made it rain manna, they would denounce welfare. This group does not include, for example, the Republicans. It has 42 deputies and does not have a position on the Esplanade: three were absent, and 5 voted against. The others — 34 — stayed with the proposed text.

It has never been a secret to anyone that the PT Lula was elected having the most conservative Congress in history, with a slice, and it is not small, frankly reactionary. Check out the pantomime of the MST’s CPI there. There were not a few who foresaw, after the first round, that ungovernability awaited Lula. And yet, here is the framework.

“Ah, but what about the defeat of sections (only sections!) of the decrees on the sanitation framework?” It was a case of maximizing the episode, which, moreover, was poorly handled by the government, although the initiative is, I understand, essentially certain of merit. Once again, “columnistic merchandising” made more noise than was reasonable.

“So the government will have an easy time in Congress?”

It will never be easy! The country elected a progressive government and a mostly conservative Congress, with a considerable share of ideological pterodactyls. And I mean the primitivism of convictions, not the age of convictions. There are pre-civilizing pact beings there who have barely abandoned their swaddling clothes.

The fact is that it is indeed a victory for the Lula government. The Apocalypse is postponed. But apocalypticists will continue to make eschatological predictions.

PS: I do think that PSOL was wrong to vote against the PLC. But I’m past the age of mixing the seasons. It’s one thing to oppose the text, as the caption did, because you think it doesn’t sufficiently meet social demands. Another, distinct, is to fight it, like the beings of the Mesozoic Era, because the sick were not hanged with the guts of the poor. In any case, I ask a question: if there were a risk of the proposal being defeated — and that would only happen if the ultra-reactionaries formed the majority — would the party still help to overthrow it? In that case, given the convictions of the association, what would come in its place would be better or worse? The issue, in short, which I understand to be of an ethical nature, is whether the PSOL just didn’t vote against it because it knew that the majority of its peers would vote in favor. Wasn’t there a bit of Kant missing from that unanimity?

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