The mathematics department of the Federal University of Minas Gerais has published, with the end of this Sunday’s games (16/7), for the 15th round, the title chances, Libertadores and risk of relegation of the teams from Série A do Brasileir0. By their counts, Botafogo, the clear leader, has more than 80% chance of winning the title, and over 99% to guarantee itself in Libertadores-2024. See now how your team is doing through studies at UFMG, which is a reference in this matter.
See here the gallery of title chances, Z4 and Libertadores do Brasileirão-2023 (by UFMG)
1st BOTAFOGO, 39 points – 82.3% chance of being champion; 99.57% chance of Libertadores
2nd FLAMENGO, 27 points – 3.9% chance of being champion; 67.6% chance of Libertadores; 0.25% downgrade risk
3rd AWARD, 26 points – 4.8% chance of being champion; 68.1% chance of Libertadores; 0.4% risk of downgrade
4th SÃO PAULO, 25 points – 1.9% chance of being champion; 52% chance of Libertadores; 0.87% risk of relegation
5th FLUMINENSE, 25 points – 1.7% chance of being champion; 50.5% chance of Libertadores; 0.89% risk of relegation
6th PALM TREE, 25 points – 1% chance of being champion; 43.4% chance of Libertadores; 1.1% risk of relegation
7th BRAGANTINO, 24 points – 1.2% chance of being champion; 44.4% chance of Libertadores 1.4% risk of relegation
8th ATHLETICO, 23 points 0.86% chance of being champion; 35.6% chance of Libertadores 2.8% risk of relegation
9th FORTALEZA, 23 points – 0.65% chance of being champion; 32.7% chance of Libertadores; 3.0% risk of downgrade
10th CRUZEIRO, 22 points – 0.48% chance of being champion; 25.8% chance of Libertadores; 4.5% risk of relegation
11th INTERNATIONAL, 22 points – 0.53% chance of being champion; 26.5% chance of Libertadores; 4.5% risk of relegation
12th ATLÉTICO MINEIRO, 20 points – 0.35% chance of being champion; 21.7% chance of Libertadores; 7% risk of relegation
13th CUIABÁ, 19 points – 0.14% chance of being champion; 13.7% chance of Libertadores ;11.7% risk of relegation
14th SANTOS, 16 points – 0.02% chance of being champion; 3.7% chance of Libertadores; 34.7% risk of relegation
15th CORINTHIANS, 15 points – 0.09% chance of being champion; 9.2% chance of Libertadores; 21.5% risk of relegation
16th BAHIA, 13 points – 0.007% chance of being champion; 1.9% chance of Libertadores; 47.6% risk of relegation
17th GOIÁS, 11 points – 0.007% chance of being champion; 1.7% chance of Libertadores; 53.9% risk of relegation
18th CORITIBA, 11 points – 0.002% chance of being champion; 0.64% chance of Libertadores; 66.4% risk of relegation
19th VASCO, 9 points – 0.002% chance of being champion; 0.69% chance of Libertadores; 69.4% risk of relegation
20th AMÉRICA-MG, 9 points – 0.002% chance of being champion; 0.61% chance of Libertadores; 68.3% risk of relegation
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