GDP preview shows growth of 3.32% in February compared to January, best performance since 2014

The Brazilian economy showed strong growth between January and February, according to the Economic Activity Index of the central bank (IBC-Br), considered the “previous” of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The indicator increased by 3.32%, in the seasonally adjusted series. In January, the drop had been 0.09% (data updated this Friday, 28).

From January to February, the activity index calculated by the BC went from 142.75 points to 147.49 points in the seasonally adjusted series, the highest level since March 2014 (147.79 points), according to the historical series started in 2003.

The result was surprising as it was well above the range of financial market estimates collected by the Estadão/Broadcastwhich ranged from 0.15% to 2%, with a positive median of 1.10%.

In the comparison between the months of February 2023 and 2022, there was an increase of 2.76% in the series without seasonal adjustments. This series registered 140.34 points in the third month of the year, also the best performance for the period since 2014 (143.53 points).

The February indicator compared to the same month of 2022 also exceeded the range projected by financial market analysts consulted by the Estadão/Broadcastwho expected a drop of 1.10% to a rise of 1.90%, with a positive median of 1.10%.

The IBC-Br serves as a parameter to assess the pace of the Brazilian economy over the months. The Central Bank’s current projection for domestic activity in 2023 is for growth of 1.2%, according to the March Quarterly Inflation Report (RTI).